Cascade Commentary

There was a sigh of relief across Europe as europhile Emmanuel Macron won the French presidential election on 7 May 2017, securing 66 per cent of the vote to beat far-right opponent, Marine Le Pen. Mr Macron becomes the youngest French president since Napoleon at the age of 39, an incredible feat for the former Rothschild banker who has never before held elected office. 

EU leaders have hailed Macron's appointment as a win against populism. Macron campaigned on a pro-EU platform, promising a programme of pro-business reforms with €60 billion in spending cuts combined with an extension of the welfare state. In comparison, Le Pen built her campaign to take France out of the Euro and re-negotiate EU rules on border-free travel, policies that were overwhelmingly rejected yesterday by French voters. 

The euro reached $1.10 for the first time since November before settling at $1.0955 this morning in London. The CAC 40, France’s benchmark equity index, fell slightly by 0.60 per cent to 6,944.77.

Commentary

Macron's appointment has been received by some as bad news for the UK in its exit from the EU. In his campaign, Mr Macron described Brexit as a "crime" that will send Britain into "servitude". Following a meeting with UK Prime Minister Theresa May, Macron said that "Brexit cannot lead to a kind of optimisation of Britain's relationship with the rest of Europe. I am very determined that there will be no undue advantages." 

While this is a difficulty for May, it is not a new one with Whitehall never anticipating any favours from Paris. Macron's appointment therefore offers stability for the EU and therefore for the UK too in its upcoming negotiations. Theresa May announced in a statement: “The Prime Minister warmly congratulates President-Elect Macron on his election success. France is one of our closest allies and we look forward to working with the new President on a wide range of shared priorities."

Downing Street also reported that Prime Minister May spoke “briefly” with Mr Macron, during which they discussed Brexit where May "reiterated that the UK wants a strong partnership".

Jean Pisani-Ferry, Mr Macron's chief economic adviser, has insisted that while Macron will be tough in negotiations, he does not wish for a hard brexit stating that "there is a mutual interest in keeping prosperity that exists, that has been built over the years from lots of economic and various relationships, also the security and defence relationship is extremely important in the kind of environment we are in and which is a very dangerous environment."

The UK electorate will go to the polls on 8 June 2017 with May asking voters to deliver her a landslide victory in the aftermath of Macron's appointment to provide her with a strong mandate to execute during Brexit talks.