Cascade Commentary


Joe Biden expected to secure victory in the US Election Race despite allegations of fraud from President Trump

October 2020

Joe Biden is expected to beat President Trump when the US electoral college meets on 14th December to formally confirm the winner by 306 votes to 232 votes following a difficult few weeks since voting ended on 3rd November 2020. President Trump has made a series of unsubstantiated claims of widespread electoral fraud since Joe Biden’s lead extended, and as time progresses many are calling for Trump to concede defeat, with New Jersey Governor Chris Christie calling the President’s legal team a “national embarrassment”.

Trump’s team have made five allegations of fraud and irregularities. In their first claim, they allege that there are many battleground states that have more votes counted than registered voters. Digging into the detail, many of the precincts alleged to have had impossibly high levels of voting have had turnouts below 100% and in a quick fact check, President Trump claimed Detroit has had far more votes than people, and yet the turnout in the city was just under 50%.

The second claim alleged that there were a high number of extra ballots that arrived in the early morning to different counting centres that led to a spike in Democrat votes implying fraud could be involved. In investigating this claim, the State of Michigan ruled the allegations were not credible. In other areas, clerical errors or software glitches have been corrected and as a lot of postal votes have favoured the Democratic party, it is expected for there to be a bump in Biden’s favour as they arrive.

Trump’s legal team in their third and fourth allegations claim that the voting system used – Dominion Voting Systems - has flipped votes from Trump to Biden. Despite claiming this, no evidence has been brought forward by Trump or his team to substantiate the allegation with Dominion Voting Systems releasing a statement saying any such claim is “100% false”. Trump’s team have also claimed that the company is owned by Democrats, which Dominion have also claimed is not true with no direct ownership.

The final claim from Trump’s team centres on “thousands of dead people” whose names are claimed to have been used on voting ballots. With a particular focus on Michigan, the BBC looked into claims that 10,000 people were dead but voted and found the allegation to be “fundamentally flawed”. A particular voter, Roberto Garcia, was singled out and he was found to very much be alive!

Despite Trump’s attempts to discredit the process, Biden has been continuing with his plans for office, preparing too for a modest inauguration ceremony on 20th January 2021 in light of the worsening coronavirus outbreak in the US. Antony Blinken is expected to take office as Secretary of State or National Security Adviser having worked together previously while Biden was vice-president for Barack Obama. Blinken is expected to be tasked with rebuilding American credibility internationally seeking to rebuild alliances with close allies in Europe.

Biden’s appointment takes place a critical time for the US and global economy as the economic impact of the coronavirus pandemic continues. Biden’s team of advisers will be tasked with tackling the legacy of the economic inequalities of the pandemic with high unemployment levels. The virus has killed more than 270,000 people in the US and the recovery period will be significant for the country and the world. We will keep you updated as we move towards the inauguration ceremony at the start of 2021.  

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